tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post1959890821313556640..comments2024-03-16T09:24:45.474+01:00Comments on 22 Billion Energy Slaves: What the Heck is Peak Oil?Jason Heppenstallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-14246181551513407312012-06-25T22:15:25.577+02:002012-06-25T22:15:25.577+02:00Jason, thank you for very relevant information’s.
...Jason, thank you for very relevant information’s.<br /><br />And sadly, Denmark has surely taken a very opposite course the last couple of decades. Take a look at this site about "meaningless" electricity production.<br /><br />http://ralph-sylvestersen.blogspot.dk/RShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17252984142023383411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-74520348024751043862012-06-18T10:12:58.147+02:002012-06-18T10:12:58.147+02:00It is good to know that they are cordial.
Surviva...It is good to know that they are cordial.<br /><br />Survivalism's more modern roots come from the nuclear war survival crowd. Needless to say, that was not a crowd that thought things would get back to normal. Many of the oddities of their scenario come from changing the scenario without changing the tactics: bugout vehicles/bags being an obvious case in point.<br /><br />Survivalims interconnects with a number of other groups - particularly the 1990s militia movement - that can bring an extreme political stance that particularly scares off people.<br /><br />The use of the term "prepper" has obvioulsy come from people who don't want to be associtated with the older image of a survivalist.russell1200https://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-59904192315963801462012-06-15T16:30:42.360+02:002012-06-15T16:30:42.360+02:00Seems like everyone has their favorite fantasy abo...Seems like everyone has their favorite fantasy about what the future will look like and prepares for it accordingly. Speaking of which, let's not forget to mention Jim Kunstler who favors reviving the railroads as an alternative to the automobile. Sounds like a desire to return to the 19th century. In any case, it seems like people like to imagine the collapse scenario that they would most like to live with and then prepare for it and be winners because they were smart enough to foresee it and get in on the ground floor of the new way of things. <br />The hardest thing it seems for anyone who imagines imminent collapse and prepares for it would be to watch it go some way they didn't imagine and still end up being losers in spite of their preparation. How heart-breaking it would be to watch someone less virtuous than yourself come out on top because they were better than you at gaming the system, any system, the crass opportunists who are prospering in a world of abundance. What if they were the same people to prosper in a world of scarcity?Wolfgang Brinckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08314364206955412017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-15088939005150677302012-06-13T10:57:23.184+02:002012-06-13T10:57:23.184+02:00Honestly I imagine slavery will make a come back i...Honestly I imagine slavery will make a come back in the western world sooner or later. It will start with forcing debtors into repaying their debts with labour rather than allowing simple bankruptcy (like they did in the not too distant past). Prisoners will also be a source of cheap labour in a future where fossil fuel driven mechanization is too expensive or scarce. In a matter of time the whole thing will become institutionalized with private individuals buying and selling people with their offspring having uncertain social status (and no functioning justice system to really enforce any freedoms they're supposed to have). <br /><br />Throughout most civilizations slaves have existed with varying degrees of guaranteed welfare. Rome wasn't possible without slavery for example. China during their golden dynasties likewise had legal slavery. Our lack of (formal) human slavery now is just a result of 22 billion energy slaves!<br /><br />By the way, Tainter's work is worth the read. It is a rich tome of insight that I found difficult to follow at times, but really rewarding, especially as an academic (it is a scholarly work and it shows).Jeffrey Kotykhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11466850119342584826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-8045677983054486352012-06-13T09:12:52.157+02:002012-06-13T09:12:52.157+02:00Hi Jeffrey,
"Peak Justice" - ouch! You&...Hi Jeffrey,<br /><br />"Peak Justice" - ouch! You're quite right, I think. Once it becomes unprofitable to keep prisoners then I'm sure kangaroo courts and the like will make short work of a lot of supposed felons. <br /><br />A few stories in the UK have surfaced in recent weeks concerning prisoners being used for cheap labour(even Gordon Ramsay's new restaurant venture apparently uses inmates - it's called the Bad Boys' Bakery) and unemployed people being used as free labour to steward the Queen's diamond jubilee pageant. After all, why pay someone to work when you force them to do it for free?<br /><br />Corruption is inevitable. Here in Denmark the country is quite often top of the league in the least-corrupt-nation leader board, but my take on this is simply that they can afford to be straight - or at least to appear that way.<br /><br />I've never read Joseph Tainter - there are too many unread books on my bookshelf screaming out to me already!Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-60852246278418562362012-06-13T08:55:14.403+02:002012-06-13T08:55:14.403+02:00I imagine you've read Joseph Tainter's wor...I imagine you've read Joseph Tainter's work on the collapse of civilizations.<br /><br />At this stage in our civilization there is great stress due to growing shortages of energy, so the powers that be invest more in legitimization and policing. You can see this in most western countries as we speak. Untold numbers of freedoms are being erased as governments step up surveillance on their own citizens and pass legislation which makes it all quite legal. At the same time for the last few decades there has been plenty of propaganda from states which legitimize the current arrangements, such as unpopular military expenditures. Video games, movies and entertainment keep the populace placated.<br /><br />It recently occurred to me that one side effect of having less energy in the system is how our legal systems, energy hungry and resource heavy as they are (think how much energy goes into a single murder case from the apprehension of the suspect to their eventual release from jail or execution), will diminish in quality as well. The safeguards we have in place designed to prevent corruption will erode away, leaving rule of law a lot less genuine looking than it did in years past. Police corruption might go unchallenged for lack of a mechanism in place to address it.<br /><br />So, one other result of peak oil will be a decline in justice as well. Human rights and so on really only came to exist due to having a high EROI. In places without such EROI, justice and human rights either cannot be afforded, or simply cannot be established for lack of resources. Likewise, we won't have the resources to keep inmates in prison for the rest of their lives. That means old fashion justice where executions occur soon after sentencing. Just like in the old days, they didn't have the resources to keep people well-fed in jail for years on end.<br /><br />Call it "Peak Justice"!Jeffrey Kotykhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11466850119342584826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-78703641920225844602012-06-13T05:55:02.522+02:002012-06-13T05:55:02.522+02:00Ha. Yes, I got an email from the Guardian saying t...Ha. Yes, I got an email from the Guardian saying that "As a gesture of goodwill we are unblocking your IP address". Gesture of goodwill ... over what? I have never written anything offensive! <br /><br />I think I can consider myself well and truly fired as a Guardian contributor. And they still owe me money ...Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-13833206033161201442012-06-13T05:49:11.028+02:002012-06-13T05:49:11.028+02:00Thanks John, it was useful for me to write it too....Thanks John, it was useful for me to write it too. When all is said and done, there are some fairly simple-to-grasp concepts that underlie peak oil - it's just that it is drowned out in everyday life by the blare of news which focuses only on one tiny aspect of the system at a time.<br /><br />I'm not sure how we got to the point of conflating economic growth with personal well-being. Still, there are encouraging signs that this particular idea is also teetering on the edge of collapse. <br /><br />If we manage to destroy ourselves and some kindly passing alien makes a tomb stone for us perhaps a fitting epitaph would be:<br /><br />Here lies humankind, <br />Should have known not to cross the line, <br />Still, without them, the world's just fine,<br />Roaches and rats, now comes your time.Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-73144303347799869112012-06-13T05:38:27.821+02:002012-06-13T05:38:27.821+02:00Yes, it's the six million dollar question, isn...Yes, it's the six million dollar question, isn't it? I value both Greer and Orlov's insights, but I'm not sure which one I agree with most. From Orlov's perspective, he speaks with the experience of someone who has seen a brittle regime collapse - but then Greer is the big gun when it comes to knowing history and the general pattern these things unravel in.<br /><br />I can understand Greer's disdain for the survivalist, but I can't share it too enthusiastically because I've never met anyone who would fit in that category. Coming from an overcrowded island, survivalism would be a whole lot more difficult. <br /><br />I'd have to say though that my gut instinct wants to favour Orlov's outlook. Sometimes it feels like this great big machine we are all riding on is lurching out of control in a most dangerous way.Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-58952192473290081842012-06-13T02:39:45.796+02:002012-06-13T02:39:45.796+02:00My name is John Wheeler, and I am a petroholic.......My name is John Wheeler, and I am a petroholic....<br /><br />Quite frankly, I think the elites are very much aware of peak oil, and from the way they are acting, they have a "solution": massive die-off, where only the rich or well-connected can afford to survive. For example, the elite get to eat the expensive, healthy, organic food; the masses get irradiated, genetically-modified garbage pumped full of toxins.John D. Wheelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16203607452410210779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-49950671764658231402012-06-13T02:30:43.700+02:002012-06-13T02:30:43.700+02:00I was at that conference, they seemed more than me...I was at that conference, they seemed more than merely polite -- cordial, perhaps, maybe even comrades. I don't think either is so arrogant as to think that society will definitely collapse in one particular way, they just disagree on which is more likely. Don't forget, Greer already chose and moved to a place to prepare for collapse, so his life resembles a survivor - prepper lifestyle more than a mainstream one. I think Greer's main problem with the traditional prepper strategy (and I could easily be projecting, because it is my objection too) is that they are preparing for a certain short period of chaos with a return to normalcy, when that normalcy is never going to come.John D. Wheelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16203607452410210779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-38602956645361083332012-06-13T02:19:12.696+02:002012-06-13T02:19:12.696+02:00You may have meant this for newbies, but I certain...You may have meant this for newbies, but I certainly find it useful to go back to the basics, if for no other reason than finding better ways to explain peak oil to people.<br /><br />This quote was particularly inspiring:<br /><br />"Indeed it's probably not too much to say that for most people, the idea of economic growth and progress has become a religion. It's how they interpret the world and the prism through which they see everything. Ergo, no economic growth equals no point in living; end of story."<br /><br />This worldview really is what I'm fighting, what I'm writing about in my blog. I've spent the past 30 years envisioning a post-consumer future that is better in so many ways, just not in terms of money, growth, or resource consumption. I doubt anyone alive will see this brighter future, but we still have time to bequeath it to those yet to be born.John D. Wheelerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16203607452410210779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-36500953409034442572012-06-12T18:35:57.759+02:002012-06-12T18:35:57.759+02:00A link on a popular blog will drive a lot of traff...A link on a popular blog will drive a lot of traffic.<br /><br />A didn't think that Greer and Orlov were really on the same page as to timing. Since they were just at the same conference, I am sure they are polite to each other, but Orlov -a true believer in Seneca's cliff seems to be pretty close to the traditional Survivor-Prepper strategy, with his bug out vehicle being a sailboat, and Greer is more of a slow unwinding with a low energy in-place concept. Greer can get a little harsh when describing the tradition prepper strategy at times.russell1200https://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-44972903181373615932012-06-12T02:40:41.885+02:002012-06-12T02:40:41.885+02:00Go figure, nothing. I can comment on Huffpost, but...Go figure, nothing. I can comment on Huffpost, but about half of my comments are expunged. Why? I don't critique people, I critique arguments. By contrast, the replies I receive from many of my comments that are published, are often littered with the harshest vitriol I have ever received, in my life, in words. Which is apparently more ok with some Huffpost censors, than direct critiques of American imperialism.William Hunter Duncanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03659156353754825272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-52922443156637227812012-06-11T08:52:31.610+02:002012-06-11T08:52:31.610+02:00My understanding is that the oil curve was always ...My understanding is that the oil curve was always about readily accessible oil - about half of which still remains (but which is being extracted at maximum capacity). It's the new finds that are the low energy yielding ones or the ones that require massive amounts of capital expenditure because they are in difficult to get to places. <br /><br />I was thinking of getting into EROEI and all that but figured that if people really are new to this then it was already starting to get a bit long. Maybe I'll save that for another day!Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-36547926746587952592012-06-11T02:25:49.296+02:002012-06-11T02:25:49.296+02:00Jason,
Great post this week! Your post will be us...Jason,<br /><br />Great post this week! Your post will be useful when introducing the topic to people. One link and they're away. One thing you might have mentioned in your post is this: Half of the oil may still be left in the ground, but it's the hard-to-extract half. The low hanging fruit has already been taken. I guess you have to mention EROEI in discussing the remaining oil. If you merely say that half of the oil has been extracted and half remains, some people are liable to conclude that they can just party on because there's plenty left.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-86953049726342640572012-06-10T21:03:37.064+02:002012-06-10T21:03:37.064+02:00Ed - I'd have to say that 'addicted' i...Ed - I'd have to say that 'addicted' is probably the best word there is to describe our relationship to oil. I can't think of any other substance that we are willing to kill for, destroy the climate over and for which the withdrawal symptoms will likely be fatal for a lot of us. I had no idea George Bush said that though - maybe he has more sense than I gave him credit for!<br /><br />Yes, I agree that Chinese leadership of late has been better than Mao. Still you'd have to be some kind of hellish despot to be worse than him! Mao is reckoned to have been responsible for between 50 and 80 million deaths - but if China has a very hard landing economically then the figure could be even higher than that - say double.<br /><br />I've no doubt that many clever people are doing all they can to protect their riches and have been factoring peak oil in for years. Most militaries do. It's only in the political arena that it doesn't get mentioned. No point in upsetting the voters.<br /><br />As for it being an economic problem - that's the exact opposite of what I said. It might manifest itself through economics to start with, but at the end of the day it's far far bigger than that. Given that we have designed systems that run on cheap energy to keep us alive, economics is going to be the last of our worries as they break down. At root it's a spiritual malaise. And as for looking at poor people to see how they live - that'd be a route to slow suicide right where I live! Most 'poor' people (and I use the term guardedly) in western countries are actually just failures within the capitalism system - but they are still addicted to it and all the more powerless for being so. <br /><br />For real inspiration I look further afield, and often think of people I saw on my travels in India eking out a living with simple tools and with houses the size of a large closet. <br /><br />Still, at least we're agreed on one thing - getting back down to sustainable a level of humans isn't going to be pretty!Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-42469916458724664232012-06-10T20:41:25.215+02:002012-06-10T20:41:25.215+02:00Yep, I noticed that too. I'd love to see some ...Yep, I noticed that too. I'd love to see some accurate figures on exactly how much less petrol/diesel is being bought in different countries. Just today I saw in a Danish newspaper that motorbike sales are rising because people are swapping them for their cars so as to save on fuel costs.<br /><br />Still, I'm sure the price of oil is only having a quick break below $100 until the next round of sabre rattling. I also think that speculators play quite a part in these swings, although not to the extent that some give them credit for.<br /><br />Let's see if I reach 12,000. Many of the hits in the past have also come via The Guardian website - but they banned me from posting, for some reason, and will now only let me do so if I don't mention my blog. Go figure!Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-60179136551441174232012-06-10T18:34:36.373+02:002012-06-10T18:34:36.373+02:00You should do the sticky or permanent link thing a...You should do the sticky or permanent link thing and direct new readers of your blog to this synopsis.<br /><br />The one thing I found to disagree with was your use of George W. Bush's phrase "addicted to oil", which I don't like because its sort of like saying "addicted to your salary". But the term "addiction" is one case of a word that has been stretched to cover so many things that its meaningless. Writers should avoid using it.<br /><br />I may also disagree with your comments on leadership. First, as your own example of Carter vs. Reagan shows, there is a strong case that since the 1980s that the political and business leadership in the (ex-) industrialized West have been less competent and more venal than normal. I think the leadership provided by the elites in the West is the worst its been since the 18th century. This is not the case with China, where the current Communist leadership is not just an improvement over Mao, but the warlords and the nineteenth century Qing regime and this is one reason China still seems to be growing.<br /><br />Second, there is some evidence, and Dmitri Orlov is good on this, that much of the Western elite knows perfectly well about the situation with peak world oil production, and even understands some of its implications, and have reacted by stealing as much from their own countries as they can. This is what the (ex) Soviet elites did around the time the Soviet Union collapsed. This is stupid on many levels, unless they have another planet lined up to go to where their credit is still good, but this possibility should be factored into the analysis because its speeding and deepening the collapse. Orlov switched from a "slow crash" to a "fast crash" perspective once he got a good look at the Western elites' response.<br /><br />One thing I like about the essay is that it highlights that the world is mainly dealing with an economic problem. Peak oil production effectively halts economic growth, and this stage of capitalism is very much organized around economic growth. The main effect of this at least in the near term is that everyone is going to be poorer. For a middle class person, the best "prep" I can think of doing is to learn how poor people in their area live and if their behavior seems strange to you, figure out why.<br /><br />But I worry about overpopulation in the longer term. During the industrial revolution, humans used the availability of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas to push past hard limits that had stopped the progress of pre-industrial civilizations. This sounds very dry, but think about the way the world has changed since 1800. Essentially, the world got a windfall, since the amount of fossil fuels are limited, which were used to "buy" various stuff. Sometimes windfalls can be used to invest in a new income stream, sometimes it can be converted into a valuable asset or memories, sometimes it goes to support a new lifestyle and its the latter use that is unsustainable. The use of the fossil fuel windfall was to increase the world population from just under one billion to seven billion. Now I've lumped coal and oil together, oil was the main form of the second industrial revolution and we are not close to peak coal yet. However, the world added three billion people just since peak oil production hit the US in the early 1970s. I'm worrying a great deal how exactly the reduction in world population will occur.Ednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-39424162671148605232012-06-10T17:22:03.946+02:002012-06-10T17:22:03.946+02:00Nice synopsis. Tight.
The latest sign we have pa...Nice synopsis. Tight. <br /><br />The latest sign we have passed peak - falling oil prices. High oil prices destroy consumer demand, which in turn deflates oil prices, perhaps below the $80-90 threshold required to make fracking and Tar Sands salvation operations economic - which operations are the only thing preventing a collapse in supply, at this point. <br /><br />12,000 hits, this month? That's about how many I've had the last year. Though my numbers doubled last month too, which I imagine, you had something to do with in part, linking my site. Thanks.William Hunter Duncanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03659156353754825272noreply@blogger.com