tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post3793540349537598279..comments2024-03-16T09:24:45.474+01:00Comments on 22 Billion Energy Slaves: The Foxtrot CollapseJason Heppenstallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-62843098378373141792013-07-17T10:58:37.726+02:002013-07-17T10:58:37.726+02:00"Of course, when I say the word ‘collapse’ I ..."Of course, when I say the word ‘collapse’ I am mostly talking about the impacts it will have on the lives of we who live in the ‘West’ - most countries and people in the world have been living with collapse for centuries. Try telling a Malawian subsistence farmer that we may be in for a bumpy ride and see how he responds." <br /><br />I like that observation a lot. And if we add the perspective of that these people to some extent are victims not of our collapse, but of our success, she (the Malawian farmer is more likely a woman) may not at all be in for a bumpy ride, but actually an improvement when she doesn't have to compete with the energy slaves used by her Western competitors in a global market. The price of her crop is perhaps a third in "real value" than it was hundred years earlier. <br /><br />The "Collapse" narrative is mostly from the perspective of the ones benefiting from the system. The reality is that some will lose a lot and some will benefit from a "collapse", unless we see one leading to all-out war etc. For many other species a collapse of human civilization is probably the most promising prospect...Gunnar Rundgrenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11869055229248959119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-56490271387108841622013-07-16T10:24:45.392+02:002013-07-16T10:24:45.392+02:00Jason,
I glanced over this post and some of the c...Jason,<br /><br />I glanced over this post and some of the comments. Got here via a link in one of Jay Hanson's A2.0 list mails.<br /><br />In my mind there's no doubt that humanity will disappear. First some bumpy ups and downs of BAU, followed by an increasingly steep downslope, collapse with end time resource wars, famines, illnesses, effects of climate change and biodiversity loss, (radioactive) pollution etc.. By 2050 it may be all over and done.<br /><br />In my view overshoot of carrying capacity is at least 400 times since 1712 (Newcombe steam engine). An ordered contraction is impossible. Moreover all our people in power and the media and NGOs blindly profess their unbroken belief in growth.<br /><br />There cannot be a sequence of civilisations, once the material base has been depleted and completely polluted. It'll be the end of mankind, and possibly of all developed life, because of radioactive pollution.<br /><br />Helmut <br /><br />cf, eg:<br />www.ecoglobe.ch/scenarios<br />www.ecoglobe.ch/scenarios/e/tod.htm<br />www.ecoglobe.ch/index404.htm<br />www.ecoglobe.ch/energy/e/peak8410.htm#Post-Oil-Man<br />www.wachstumsforum.ch/economics/e/perfect-storm.pdf<br /><br />Helmut Lubbershttp://www.ecoglobe.chnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-30460781476106156332013-06-24T14:53:03.376+02:002013-06-24T14:53:03.376+02:00Thanks Ben. It's funny and ironic that you sho...Thanks Ben. It's funny and ironic that you should use the word 'spell' while talking bout JHK, because of course he rails against 'too much (technological) magic'. But, you're right, those who talk of violent cataclysmic collapse hold us spellbound - more so than those who see it as a long and boring slump into entropy.<br /><br />I half- wish I could keep these things to myself, but on the other hand I think that if you are aware of the mess we're in then there is a duty to communicate it (if you are any good at communication). We're going to be talking about this on a Doomstead Diner podcast - probably next week - so be sure to tune in!Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-65880872712185716632013-06-24T14:47:48.337+02:002013-06-24T14:47:48.337+02:00I'd say that our access to oil and other fossi...I'd say that our access to oil and other fossil fuels has allowed us to catapult ourselves forward in such a way that several different tipping points are reached more or less simultaneously. Water shortages, topsoil erosion, climate change etc etc have all been brought to a head through our recklessness. Whereas in the past these would have just been local problems, no our global economy - that allows us to transplant capital to wherever the regulations are weakest - makes collapse inevitable. Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-47607382347391018772013-06-24T14:41:56.198+02:002013-06-24T14:41:56.198+02:00Well, I don't think either panglossianism or i...Well, I don't think either panglossianism or its evil twin, NTE, even crosses the minds of 99% of people. For this who are tuned in, one way or the other, it does seem odd that so many would go to one extreme or the other.<br /><br />Living with entropy is something that many of us will have to re-learn, I guess.Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-42205950593138760572013-06-23T01:52:51.011+02:002013-06-23T01:52:51.011+02:00Jason,
Well done on the 100th Post. I'd certa...Jason,<br /><br />Well done on the 100th Post. I'd certainly be interested in reading a book that you write.<br /><br />As far as the progress of the Collapse... like many of us, I fell deeply under the spell of Matt Simmons, Kunstler and even Mike Ruppert (when I first read 9/11 research, it was too much for me)<br /><br />It seems to me now that our decline is taking it's own time, and moving in many unexpected directions. <br /><br />Back in 2006, when I left the Matrix for a Green adventure in permaculture, I had an instinct telling me, there was another choice in front of me... I could take this hard line, life changing trip into Green, or I could "Change the world in me", with a meditation mat representing the place that I would "go".<br /><br />With some hindsight, I'm glad I'm not so ignorant of the world's plight anymore. But, I keep most of what I've learned to myself, especially when I'm hanging out with friends who have kids (especially new parents).<br /><br />As it turns out, I had no say in being born at this time (from the rational perspective), just as I have very little say in how things will unfold.<br /><br />Accepting what is is the first step to accepting what might come (and indeed, realising there is no difference). Letting the oft maligned ego go, might be the first step in being more compassionate with other beings, people particularly. <br /><br />A little less greed can't possibly deliver anything but soften the landing we are heading to.<br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15106350512057568374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-30345300705754356872013-06-21T12:53:08.106+02:002013-06-21T12:53:08.106+02:00The only issue I would note is that the various co...The only issue I would note is that the various collapse theories don't agree as to the cause, and peak oil doesn't fit in particularly well with any of them (I am willing to stand corrected though). So while I think we have a serious problem with peak oil, it is not an unreasonable argument that it is somewhat different this time.<br /><br />To my mind, at times it seems like we are in a race against competing collapses. But some of the collapses have the potential to put a check on some of the others: as in peak oil slowing up overreach in other areas to give us more time to work with.russell1200https://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-31419010106030258412013-06-20T22:44:02.903+02:002013-06-20T22:44:02.903+02:00hello Jason,
I'd be interested in your book.
...hello Jason,<br /><br />I'd be interested in your book.<br />I think downscaling as you posit in this post is how our descent into a lower energy-hungry state of being will/is pan(ning) out. I'll be interested in reading your particular take on that seen you're someone who is actively engaged in resilient adaptation.<br /><br />Both a Panglossian and/or a NTE outlook is strictly relative to most and are likely to personally experience both at different times as lack of energy/resource prevents us from staving off entropy as done in the last few generations.<br /><br />Is all relative. Take The Greate Plague of 1665, in London, killed 15-20% of the population there. Quite the NTE to those that died, quite Panglossian to those tradesmen who survived and found themselves dealing directly in business with Lords as not many middle men were left to dip into their contracts. Like Albert Einstein said, "When you're courting a girl, hours seem like a second. When you're sitting on an ember, a second seems like hours. THAT's relativity."<br /><br />The thing is to accept we will have less and less control over entropy, thus resilience, a stoic non-boastful demeanor that has us controlling only that over which we have control, our individual selves, are likely to be qualities of sages. <br />Like Kipling says in IF: "If you can meet with both Triumph and Disaster and treat those two impostors just the same..."; except for the bunch of entitled egocentrics in "advanced" economies who rarely ever have had to consider anything outside their bubbled existence and are now finding themselves forced down into a lower-energy state of consumption, this is very hard to comprehend for them --oh the calamity, to have to live from paycheck to paycheck, like an immigrant, oh poor them, such injustice to them; never having to define stoicism or courage outside a classroom, they naturally crave NTE for everyone else too, so they don't feel so alone I think.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-54529906777873901722013-06-20T20:14:10.824+02:002013-06-20T20:14:10.824+02:00This is an interesting montage of pictures documen...This is an interesting montage of pictures documenting catabolic industrial decay - mostly in Britain, but also a few other places.<br /><br /><a href="https://witness.guardian.co.uk/assignment/51bf1439e4b08f0b0eb201ae?INTCMP=mic_2094" rel="nofollow">See it here</a><br /><br />I contributed the one on Greece (I'm 'NoneTooClever')Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-43363287987099439942013-06-20T20:12:47.618+02:002013-06-20T20:12:47.618+02:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-42330299368108581822013-06-20T17:34:40.992+02:002013-06-20T17:34:40.992+02:00Thanks, Jose (sorry, my keyboard is missing the ac...Thanks, Jose (sorry, my keyboard is missing the accents). It's good to know that for every robot there's a real person reading this blog!<br /><br />Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-87339517930224740212013-06-20T17:32:32.509+02:002013-06-20T17:32:32.509+02:00Let's not start a robot war ;o)Let's not start a robot war ;o)<br /><br />Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-38473976020762946972013-06-20T17:31:12.793+02:002013-06-20T17:31:12.793+02:00Wolfgang - "post peak scum" - I love it ...Wolfgang - "post peak scum" - I love it ;-)<br /><br />It certainly sounds very interesting, your setup. I used to live near Christiania in Copenhagen, which used to be a naval base and sounds quite similar. With all the things going on there that you describe it sounds like one of Dmitry Orlov's 'model' anarchist setups. <br /><br />As for slow or sudden - I'm also a little tired of the topic - part of me hopes that 'something' will happen to conclusively prove that I'm not a raving loon, and another bit is quite worried about what that might mean to me and my family, yet probably the greatest part of me is quite content for BAU to carry on a few more years so I can make more preparations and get my woodland project ticking over. I've read Kunstler's 'World Made by Hand' - I liked it, although apparently people say he has an obsession with trains.<br /><br />BTW I'd rather write a book than make a video. I'm not good at real-time ranting, and I once appeared on a news TV show in Denmark and was horrified to see myself on the screen when it aired. I think I'll take your advice and stick with the truth - and try and inject a little gallows humour. In any case, I don't seem to be able to write in any other way, even if I try to be all serious and academic ;-)<br /><br />Thanks for your insights!Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-53332108028461276842013-06-20T17:17:25.927+02:002013-06-20T17:17:25.927+02:00Jason,
Go ahead and write the book if book writing...Jason,<br />Go ahead and write the book if book writing is what you know how to do. And as another comment suggested, make it entertaining. And tell the truth as you see it. Honesty is in short supply these days and always finds an appreciative audience, among those who appreciate honesty, of course. <br />I have various writing ideas myself and start on them and then abandon them because other things have higher priority. My life always intrudes. I have yurts and boats to build and the folly of contemporary life to marvel at. Such an entertaining circus. How can the written word compete? Perhaps better to get a video camera and stand in front of it and rant, hair tossing and spittle flying, eyes bulging and then post the thing on youtube. <br />As for predictions of the future, fast vs. slow collapse, I am starting to lose interest in that topic. Seems like regardless of which rate of collapse the various writers imagine, they all have a favorite landing place for the post-collapse societies. Kunstler seems to favor late 19th century America with small towns linked by railroads and the towns surrounded by small farms. Given that the farms are now large and owned by corporations, turning them back into small farms might take some doing. And so it goes, everyone has their favorite post-collapse scenario. <br />In a way, my compatriots and I are already living the post-collapse life. We are a group of artisans/craftsmen who have set up shop on a navy base that was decommissioned after the Soviet collapse. We are surrounded by stage set from the times when America was in its glory. During the Vietnam war, five aircraft carriers were based here and much of that war was provisioned from the immediate neighborhood. Now of course, the hangars and maintenance buildings of the base are not serving the war effort any more and those huge marvelous buildings are acquiring post peak scum like ourselves, welders, blacksmiths, tinkerers, wood workers, boat builders, brewers, wine makers, bus repair facilities and so on. There are also some high tech endeavors such as wind power projects, but the majority of the folks are just here because the rents are relatively cheap. There is no grand plan or government intervention, so the place has its own dynamic rather than a grand vision of some sort of high-tech future inventing skunk works. <br />Meanwhile, across the bay in San Francisco, food foraging classes are all the rage. I don't know to what extent people who take the classes are motivated by the notion that this is cool or out of a sense of preparing for hard times. Still, regardless of what shape the future will take, a subset of the larger population is working on scavenging and re-use skills, top among which is making a living without working for The Man, and The Man is cooperating by daily throwing more folk out on the street.Wolfgang Brinckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08314364206955412017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-56604791285962014772013-06-20T13:33:30.953+02:002013-06-20T13:33:30.953+02:00Jason,
Congratulations on your 100th post, and th...Jason, <br />Congratulations on your 100th post, and thanks for the effort to keep writing. I haven't commented before, but I've been a regular reader of you posts as you've been moving around Europe, and really value your insights and just reading about your activities. <br />I'll now add Fox Wood into my other reading list (more oriented toward permaculture & homesteading). <br />- José. José Madeira .https://www.blogger.com/profile/03817341196234674474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-64255620628171134572013-06-20T09:56:39.488+02:002013-06-20T09:56:39.488+02:00Shakya - I had read somewhere that China has a bur...Shakya - I had read somewhere that China has a burgeoning problem with too many graduates and not enough jobs for them. Given the frankly suicidal growth rates decided upon by the political elites of both China and India it can only be a question of time before there is widespread disappointment and anger at the situation.<br /><br />It's totally understandable for parents to want their kids to 'get and education' and be successful. Unfortunately I fear that they are getting the wrong kind of education for the future that they can expect. <br /><br />Of course, if the social tensions become too great then the temptation for leaders is to find some kind of external threat and then turn all those over-qualified young people into cannon fodder. Let's hope that doesn't happen - it would be far better to send them back to the countryside where they came from and re-learn the skills that they have been un-taught. But that would be just too anti-progressive, wouldn't it?Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-54754589298230573522013-06-20T09:56:06.652+02:002013-06-20T09:56:06.652+02:00I get that many Bot Hits every Day! :D
REI get that many Bot Hits every Day! :D<br /><br />REReverse Engineerhttp://doomesteaddiner.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-16118163244497322012013-06-20T03:54:50.953+02:002013-06-20T03:54:50.953+02:00Have you seen how even China has problems with sur...Have you seen how even China has problems with surplus graduates?<br /><br />http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/careers/career-advice/chinas-growing-glut-of-unemployed-graduates/article12234902/<br /><br />The whole urban society there suddenly went into overdrive trying to get their kids into the best schools, universities and jobs, with the result that supply exceeds demand.<br /><br />The same thing is happening here in India, too. I know a lot of students who come from the countryside and study subjects like commerce and tourism. I've suggested a few times they might consider going back to their family farm way up in the mountains.<br /><br />Such words are entirely alien to them. Their own family wants them to "get an education" and get into the urban middle class.<br /><br />When such hopes go unfulfilled there is social tension. That's why these big Asian countries spend so much on internal security (and probably why most western countries are beefing up their own).<br /><br />But what happens when there isn't enough for it? Or when factions in the elites see an opportunity to get disenchanted youth behind them?Jeffrey Kotykhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11466850119342584826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-52166911393563537132013-06-19T16:46:51.327+02:002013-06-19T16:46:51.327+02:00Thanks! I'll get on with the book … but I'...Thanks! I'll get on with the book … but I'm also thinking about fiction. I've come to not care about how many people read it (or not) - which is strangely liberating. The worst mistake I made with the other book I wrote (the one about Spain, which I'll also offer up as well) was that I kept trying to please literary agents and it ended up getting distorted and not what I had originally set out to write.<br /><br />Over here you never hear the words 'peak oil' uttered. I doubt 99% of people have ever even heard of the concept - so hopefully it'll be somewhat original over this side of the water.<br /><br />Jason Heppenstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17886109260870545074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5584699251999622098.post-90218450881079574752013-06-19T15:34:23.483+02:002013-06-19T15:34:23.483+02:00Congrats! If we are comparing notes, after 3 years...Congrats! If we are comparing notes, after 3 years and 250 posts, you have five times the bots etc reading! <br /><br />Write a book. Whatever books. You should put your novels out there too, if not for money, just for download. I'm thinking of letting go the cultural commentary and focusing on fiction ;) More fun. Besides, the more direct I speak about the thing, the less people read. Might as well make it entertaining, and write about the thing without writing about the thing, if you know what I mean. <br /><br />Blessings. William Hunter Duncanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03659156353754825272noreply@blogger.com