The view from my kitchen window this morning in Kastrup, Copenhagen |
This morning I awoke
before the sun had risen and, having made myself a cup of tea,
turned on the local news to see if anything interesting had happened.
The newsreaders were in a state of mild excitement because the night
had been the coldest in 26 years. Yes, outside my window it was a
nippy -18C, with parts of the country experiencing lows of -23C
(-9F).
This, of course, is
seriously cold. High pressure has been the dominant atmospheric force
this past week, making for beautiful clear blue skies, frozen lakes
that you can skate on incredibly sunsets. At least in Denmark, that
is. Elsewhere in Eastern Europe the cold weather has caused chaos,
and several hundred deaths as homeless people have frozen where they
lay. Denmark, of course, doesn't have any homeless people, and the
only people who end up freezing to death are usually young drunks
walking home in rural areas.
But all this cold
weather has got me thinking about what would happen if the hot water,
which is piped underground from power stations to most apartment
blocks around the country, faltered and failed. Denmark, it must be
said, likes to burn stuff. They are generally not fussy about what is
fed into power stations, as long as it is flammable. Danes use plenty
of coal in their energy mix, and some of it comes from far off places
like South America, but the other combustibles of choice are oil –
which Denmark still has some of – and post consumer waste i.e.
trash.
I've written before
about Denmark's enchantment
with garbage, which has led it to become the biggest
producer of trash in the EU, and the effect this has on the
national mentality with regard to over packaging and then throwing
stuff out (almost everything in my apartment has been thrown away by
someone else). But what about when the trash runs out? We know that
North Sea Oil is in steep decline, and we know that transporting coal
long distance will become more and more expensive, but what about all
the trash? Peak garbage anyone?
Anyway, this is all a
roundabout way of an introduction to one of my favourite pastimes of
late, a mental what if? game that I call Fantasy Collapse. Anyone
familiar with Fantasy Football will already have an idea of what I'm
talking about - you pick a team, or in this case a country – and
predict how well it is going to do over the season (or coming
decades) based on your projections. If one of your projections is
realised you earn some points, with the winner being the one with the
most correct predictions.
Obviously, this isn't
the kind of game that many people would be interested in playing, so
I just have to play it in my own head, with my only 'opponent' being
Danish government spokespeople. So, for example, whenever one of them
pops up and says that Denmark will soon have a countrywide smart grid
that allows the entire national fleet of vehicles to run on wind
power, I will make an opposing prediction that this will be a
spectacular failure. Instead, I'll predict that when Denmark runs out
of domestic oil it will turn to its friend Norway to keep the black
stuff flowing (they have far more reserves) for a little while longer
– and any talk of there being a smart eco grid will be drowned out
by voices crying out to allow for more oil exploration in Greenland.
Clearly, this game
takes time to play, but here are some of my tentative predictions for
Denmark in the coming 50 years, divided up into several categories.
Electricity. As
mentioned above, Denmark is pretty stuffed when it comes to getting
an uninterrupted supply of energy at the levels it is used to. Oil
and gas are fast running out and Germany may well want to keep hold
of its coal when it phases out nuclear fuel. Denmark is part of a
pan-Scandinavian electricity grid, however, and Sweden and Norway
have plenty of energy reserves – Sweden in the form of nuclear
power and Norway in the form of hydroelectric. If thorium reactor
technology ever gets off the ground – which I sincerely doubt –
Norway is poised to be in a position to use it, given that it has the
world's third largest reserves of the stuff. Denmark's own, quite
admirable, use of renewable energy is already hitting the stumbling
blocks as the rare earth minerals used in a most renewable energy
technology become, er, rarer.
To summarise:
Denmark will still have a current in most of its wires, but it had
better keep on the right side of Norway and China.
Heat. Obviously, this
is closely connected to the above. It shouldn't take a genius to
figure out that a useful amount of heat is very hard to produce using
renewable energy in a country often blanketed in thick cloud. For six
months of the year solar water heaters will probably prove to be very
useful investments, but during the winter months my guess is that the
country will become more reliant on burning one particular resource
of which Scandinavia has a lot: wood. Sweden, as most people know, is
liberally endowed with pine forests. The only problem with this is
that those pine forests tend to be quite far away from Denmark, which
geographically speaking is a transition zone between northern Germany
and Scandinavia proper. Transporting wood, or any fuel, over long
distance considerably cuts into its EROEI (energy return on energy
invested – the effectiveness of any particular energy source
divided by the energy expended in extracting and producing it). At
one point in time, when gushers gushed and oil erupted easily from
wells in accessible areas, its EROEI was up to 300. This has now
fallen to the woefully low level of around 7:1
in Saudi Arabia and 4:1 in Venezuela and the figure for wood is
likely to be a fair bit lower. Needless to say, a further reliance on
using areas of the Earth's surface to feed the insatiable demands of
a system designed for and predicated on an abundance of cheap oil is
not likely to be pretty, in ecological terms.
To summarise: invest
in thermal underwear and insulation.
Housing: Danes
love flats. They just can't get enough of them and there is constant
talk of a shortage of available 'housing' i.e. apartments. On the
plus side, apartment blocks are a very efficient way of storing
people. With an average size of 80m2, most apartments here are highly
insulated and in good condition. They are perfectly adequate for a
couple or a small family, but when the numbers rise over, say five,
things can get a little cramped. Many are communal projects, with
people sharing kitchen and cleaning facilities, so these are
long-sighted and likely to do well. Where flats show shortcomings,
however, is the above mentioned umbilical reliance on heating as
provided by large thermal power stations burning stuff. It's a
serious weakness, because if they fail for whatever reason, people
will have no way of heating their apartments (I have never seen an
apartment with a chimney). It is of course possible that apartments
could be retrofitted on a grand scale to incorporate wood burners
which vent into the very ducts now used for ventilation – this
would at least be a step away from efficiency and towards resilience.
Another failing is that
if everyone lives in flats they have no productive space to run small
businesses or grow food. Modern apartments are designed for people in
a rush who have a job to go to and supermarkets where they can
purchase their food. A modern Danish apartment, which is likely to be
highly minimalistic in its décor and furnishings, is a kind of
just-in-time way of living. There is hardly any space for inventory
or food storage – and it relies on complex and globe spanning
supply chains functioning like clockwork to keep it that way. Take
any of these prerequisites away and people will soon learn the
limitations of this mode of living.
Once the office jobs
dry up and the benefits of living in a city become a lot less
attractive, I imagine a lot of people will return to their rural
roots. Right now a largish 140 year old stone fixer-upper farmhouse
with barns, a cobbled inner courtyard and a few productive acres
costs as little at 750,000 kroner (130,000 US dollars) – here's
an example of one - , whereas a small flat in Copenhagen can set
you back the best part of a million dollars – here's
another to compare. Rural property is practically the only thing
that is cheap in Denmark – the country where a cup of coffee costs
around 8 US dollars.
But one bright spot for
Danes is the fact that so many of them own a second home in the
countryside – or even in the cities. Whole areas are set aside as
'colony gardens' and the idea came in more straitened (and possibly
sensible) times to allow the urban workforce access to a patch of
land. There is one such area very close to my flat, which you can see
on the Google maps image below. At present, most of the plots have
small wooden houses on them, which owners are allowed to stay in for
a certain number of weeks each year. Gardens are mostly given over to
flowers and lawns, but there's no reason why they couldn't be quickly
turned over into productive spaces and extra accommodation in a
crisis.
Colony houses seen from above in Copenhagen. These could easily be turned into productive allotments if need be. |
In summary: buy a
farm in Denmark before everyone else gets the same idea. Which leads
me onto ...
Food: Denmark could
be self sufficient in food. There are only around six million
inhabitants living on very productive soils. That's a lot of space.
Of course, a lot would need to change in the way of what is
considered as food. At present, a huge amount of pork is produced
here, which is obviously something that could be cut. The nation, as
a collection of islands, is surrounded by seas which for the time
being still have fish in them – (although it was once said that you
could dip a bucket into the Baltic here and it would come up full of
herrings – these days I've never even a live one). People who claim
that Denmark is a small country have no idea of how small they
themselves are. I once calculated that everyone in the world – all
seven billion of us – could stand comfortably on the Danish island
of Zealand – which is not particularly large.
Organic food is very
popular here, in fact is some ordinary supermarkets it makes up about
50 percent of what is on offer. Danes hate chemicals and have an
instinctive fear of poison which many other countries don't seem to
have. Another promising thing is the popularity of Bonderøven
(which translates as 'farm arse') – a prime time TV show about a
man with his family who eschews modern living and has gone back to a
pre-industrial way of living off the land.
In summary: back to
the land!
Transport: Denmark will
not have too many problems when it comes to transport. Practically
all options exist and it is well known that the country is one big
cycle network, constructed in the wake of the oil shocks of the
1970s. Cars are unpopular here (and taxed at 200 percent of value) so
the kind of psychological attachment prevalent in the US and, to a
lesser extent, Britain is absent. What's more there is a good train
network and boats are likely to make a big comeback as a means of
getting around (and Denmark, a maritime nation, still has a great
attachment to boat building which goes back all the way to before
Viking times).
In summary:
smallish, flatish and with a sturdy network.
People: In any country
its primary resource is its people. That's what makes a country an abstract human construct rather than just a chunk of geography. I
have both doubts and hopes about the way Danes will react to the long
descent. On the one hand nobody seems to have swallowed the whole
religion of progress hook line and sinker more so than the Danes –
so there will be psychological problems to overcome as well as
physical. People criticise the Danes for being aloof and
condescending and for seemingly thinking themselves as somehow immune
from the world's ills. Needless to say, this kind of attitude is not
very useful when confronting the predicament we all find ourselves
faced with. What's more, high standards of living in Denmark have
left many people soft in mind and body and with no real idea of how
to fix things if they break down or get by on limited resources.
But … I like to think
that Danes might be a bit like large hobbits, with hidden capacities
for endurance. The concrete social cohesion makes for a smoothly
functioning society and it has often been suggested that Denmark is
not a nation but a tribe. People pull together and there is none of
the internecine conflict that renders other nations paralysed and
unable to act in the face of crisis. Traditionally, Denmark has been
an introverted nation, little interested in the wider world – and
this attitude served them well. It is my guess that they will return
to this attitude, which is the antithesis of the attitude required by
globalisation, but hey ho.
One further prediction
along these lines concerns religion. Denmark has been notionally
Christian since Harald Bluetooth erected the Jelling Stones in around
970. I say notionally because it seems to me that the old gods
remain. They still teach children the myths and legends in schools
and my daughters have more than one little friend called Thor. What's
more, Christmas isn't really Christmas here – it is Jul (meaning
'wheel' the old pagan festival celebrating the turning of the year at
winter solstice) and you'll never see images of Jesus or anyone like
that around this time. Thus, it would not surprise me in the least if
social cohesion was strengthened in the coming decades by a return to
the old Norse gods. Let's face it, their mythology is more
interesting.
One of the Jelling Stones, proclaiming Denmark to be a Christian nation ... but is it? |
To summarise:
Scandinavians can probably tough it out.
Okay, I could talk
about other aspects of Fantasy Collapse, mentioning how Denmark might
cope with climate change (let's not forget how low lying some areas
are), military invasions (Russia being a prime contender) and the
likelihood of a return to a new Golden Age of the arts – but that
will have to wait for another post.
What do you think the social impact will be? Denmark as I understand it is a tolerant and quite liberal society, but this is due in part to economic prosperity. In the face of poverty and physical hardship, will this change?
ReplyDeleteI know in Canada the whole liberal attitudes prevalent nowadays (particularly towards immigrants) could easily change in the face of sustained economic hardship. In tough times people go back to older conservative attitudes and with it intolerance towards certain demographics.
Hi Jeffrey - apologies for the slow response!
ReplyDeleteYes, Denmark has the reputation of being a tolerant and liberal society - but like most thing, there's more to it than meets the eye. We've just had 10 years of a right wing government, backed by a fringe anti-immigration party. I think during those ten years the country pretty much shed its image of being tolerant.
Of course, this is a vast simplification. I've spend years trying to decode Denmark and have written a fair bit about it on my other blog RedHerring.dk
Basically put, Denmark is a deeply conservative country with a liberal veneer - at least until the good times end!